Leicester 2–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

R. Mahrez 48'

J. Vardy 34'

L. Rémy 77'

12/14/2015

Premier League · Round 16King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leicester36%

×Draw26%

Chelsea39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Leicester

1.33

Chelsea

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 36 away

1.18

creates per match

1.45

1.34

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

Leicester

1.34

Chelsea

1.48

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

61%

Leicester or Chelsea

74%

Draw or Chelsea

64%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Chelsea wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

38%

Leicester 3+ goals

15%

Chelsea 1+ goals

75%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

48%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Leicester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more

36%

level

26%

Chelsea scores more

39%

Chelsea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Mahrez

Leicester · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

A. King← D. Drinkwater

31'

Pedro← E. Hazard

34'

J. Vardy↳ R. Mahrez

46'

Jamie Vardy

48'

R. Mahrez↳ M. Albrighton

50'

Robert Huth

53'

Fàbregas← J. Terry

65'

L. Rémy← Oscar

77'

L. Rémy↳ Pedro

82'

G. İnler← R. Mahrez

88'

S. Okazaki← J. Vardy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterChelsea

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots11

1Corners8

0Fouls0

Shots

9Total Shots11

5On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

275Total Passes522

164Accurate Passes420

60%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2