Leicester 2–2 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Barnsley

J. Vardy 90'

A. Knockaert 9'

R. Noble-Lazarus 39'

S. Dawson 27'

12/8/2012

Championship · Round 21King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Leicester52%

×Draw25%

Barnsley24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.01

Leicester

1.62

Barnsley

1.01

Leicester creates 60% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

1.70

creates per match

0.93

1.09

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Leicester

1.70

Barnsley

0.93

allows per match

Leicester

1.09

Barnsley

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

76%

Leicester or Barnsley

75%

Draw or Barnsley

48%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

27%

Barnsley wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

80%

Leicester 2+ goals

48%

Leicester 3+ goals

22%

Barnsley 1+ goals

64%

Barnsley 2+ goals

27%

Barnsley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

69%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.70 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.62

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Leicester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leicester scores more

52%

level

25%

Barnsley scores more

24%

Leicester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Knockaert

27'

S. Dawson

39'

R. Noble-Lazarus

59'

B. Marshall← A. Knockaert

67'

J. Vardy← M. Waghorn

67'

M. Tudgay← A. Buzsaky

75'

M. Futacs← L. Dyer

79'

D. Perkins← J. Stones

79'

K. Etuhu← R. Noble-Lazarus

90'

J. Vardy

Leicester

Barnsley

1

3

25

14

34

▼

Stones

8

O'Brien

28

Greening

36

▼

Buzsaky

7

⚽

Dawson

9

Davies

24

⚽

▼

1

3

5

2

6

10

11

▼

Dyer

4

Drinkwate

24

⚽

▼

Knockaert

35

Nugent

14

▼

Waghorn

59'▲B. Marshall←▼A. Knockaert

67'▲J. Vardy←▼M. Waghorn

75'▲M. Futacs←▼L. Dyer

Leicester substitutes

7Marshall9Vardy29Futacs13Logan16James22Moore23Lingard

67'▲M. Tudgay←▼A. Buzsaky

79'▲D. Perkins←▼J. Stones

79'▲K. Etuhu←▼R. Noble-Lazarus

Barnsley substitutes

29Tudgay11Perkins23Etuhu2Hassell6Foster12Alnwick27Sinclair