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Barnsley vs Leicester — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Leicester
Leicester
3/11/2014ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Oakwell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Barnsley32%
×Draw27%
Leicester41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.16
Leicester
1.33

Leicester creates 15% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.10
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Barnsley
1.22
Leicester
1.22

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
59%
Barnsley or Leicester
73%
Draw or Leicester
68%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
13%
Leicester wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
69%
Barnsley 2+ goals
32%
Barnsley 3+ goals
11%
Leicester 1+ goals
74%
Leicester 2+ goals
38%
Leicester 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
44%
Leicester (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.10 + Leicester defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Leicester attack 1.45 + Barnsley defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barnsley scores more
32%
level
27%
Leicester scores more
41%

Leicester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Barnsley 0–3 Leicester

Leicester beat Barnsley 3-0 in Championship on March 11, 2014.

The match was played at Oakwell Stadium in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.