Leicester Road vs Anstey Nomads — League #55 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Leicester Road27%
Anstey Nomads49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Anstey Nomads creates 41% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leicester Road ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leicester Road at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches
Anstey Nomads away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leicester Road attack 1.36 + Anstey Nomads defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18
Anstey Nomads attack 2.40 + Leicester Road defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Anstey Nomads at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Anstey Nomads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Bedworth United
Sutton Coldfield Town
Racing Club Warwick
St Neots Town
Shepshed DynamoAnstey Nomads
Lichfield City
Carlton Town
Coleshill Town
Bourne Town
Wellingborough Town
Basford United
Boldmere St. Michaels
Rugby Town
Belper Town
Coventry Sphinx
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Loughborough University
Long Eaton United
Mickleover Sports
Rugby Borough
Corby TownIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Leicester Road host Anstey Nomads on Thursday, 26 December 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #55 2026/2027 season.
League #55: Leicester Road 0–1 Anstey Nomads
Anstey Nomads beat Leicester Road 1-0 in League #55 on December 26, 2024.
The match was played at The Greene King Stadium in Hinckley, Leicestershire.