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Anstey Nomads vs Leicester Road — League #55 2026

Anstey Nomads
Anstey Nomads
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leicester Road
Leicester Road
4/21/2025League #55League #55 · Northern Midlands - 41Cropston Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anstey Nomads52%
×Draw25%
Leicester Road23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anstey Nomads
1.56
Leicester Road
0.94

Anstey Nomads creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Anstey Nomads
2.00
Leicester Road
1.13

allows per match

Anstey Nomads
0.75
Leicester Road
1.13

finishing

Anstey Nomads+0.00on par
Leicester Road+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anstey Nomads ↓

Leicester Road →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anstey Nomads or draw
77%
Anstey Nomads or Leicester Road
75%
Draw or Leicester Road
48%

Winning margin

Anstey Nomads wins by 2+
27%
Leicester Road wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Anstey Nomads 1+ goals
79%
Anstey Nomads 2+ goals
46%
Anstey Nomads 3+ goals
21%
Leicester Road 1+ goals
61%
Leicester Road 2+ goals
24%
Leicester Road 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Anstey Nomads (draw refunded)
69%
Leicester Road (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anstey Nomads at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Leicester Road away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anstey Nomads attack 2.00 + Leicester Road defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leicester Road attack 1.13 + Anstey Nomads defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Anstey Nomads scores more
52%
level
25%
Leicester Road scores more
23%

Anstey Nomads at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Anstey Nomads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anstey Nomads vs Leicester Road

Anstey Nomads beat Leicester Road 4-0 in League #55 on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Cropston Road in Leicester, Leicestershire.