Legon Cities 3–2 Real Tamale: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

3 – 2

Real Tamale

J. Attuquaye 85' (pen)

N. Akwah 54'

J. Adjei 22'

D. Sandan Abagna 87' (pen), 29'

11/6/2021

Premier League · Round 2Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Legon Cities58%

×Draw24%

Real Tamale18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchReal Tamale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.85

Legon Cities

1.71

Real Tamale

0.85

Legon Cities creates 101% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 53 away

1.21

creates per match

0.83

0.88

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.21

Real Tamale

0.83

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Real Tamale

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Real Tamale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

82%

Legon Cities or Real Tamale

76%

Draw or Real Tamale

42%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

32%

Real Tamale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

82%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

51%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

24%

Real Tamale 1+ goals

57%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

21%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

76%

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.21 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Legon Cities scores more

58%

level

24%

Real Tamale scores more

18%

Legon Cities at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

22'

J. Adjei

29'

D. Sandan Abagna

50'

J. Mereku← J. Mereku

50'

N. Akwah← N. Akwah

50'

N. Hamzah← N. Hamzah

54'

N. Akwah

55'

57'

70'

L. Abdulai← L. Abdulai

85'

J. AttuquayePenalty

86'

A. Boateng Afriyie← A. Boateng Afriyie

87'

D. Sandan AbagnaPenalty

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff