Legon Cities 1–0 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

King Faisal

J. Attuquaye 62'

2/14/2022

Premier League · Round 17Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Legon Cities53%

×Draw27%

King Faisal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.80

Legon Cities

1.46

King Faisal

0.80

Legon Cities creates 83% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 59 away

1.23

creates per match

0.71

0.89

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.23

King Faisal

0.71

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.89

King Faisal

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

79%

Legon Cities or King Faisal

73%

Draw or King Faisal

47%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

27%

King Faisal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

77%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

43%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

18%

King Faisal 1+ goals

55%

King Faisal 2+ goals

19%

King Faisal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

72%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.23 + King Faisal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Legon Cities defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legon Cities scores more

53%

level

27%

King Faisal scores more

21%

Legon Cities at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

O. Amadu← O. Amadu

55'

N. Moro← N. Moro

62'

J. Attuquaye

65'

69'

K. Frimpong← K. Frimpong

69'

A. Rahman← A. Rahman

76'

Y. Wadudu

81'

E. Sarfo← E. Sarfo

82'

Daniel Yemoh← Daniel Yemoh

88'

J. Mereku← J. Mereku

89'

D. Oppong← D. Oppong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff