King Faisal 2–0 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

2 – 0

Legon Cities

K. Preprah 58'

K. Frimpong 22'

6/28/2021

Premier League · Round 31Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

King Faisal49%

×Draw29%

Legon Cities22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.76

King Faisal

1.28

Legon Cities

0.76

King Faisal creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

1.18

creates per match

0.59

0.92

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

King Faisal

1.18

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

King Faisal

0.92

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

78%

King Faisal or Legon Cities

71%

Draw or Legon Cities

51%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

23%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

72%

King Faisal 2+ goals

37%

King Faisal 3+ goals

14%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

53%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

18%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

69%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

King Faisal scores more

49%

level

29%

Legon Cities scores more

22%

King Faisal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Frimpong

45+3'

48'

58'

K. Preprah

60'

R. K. Antwi← R. K. Antwi

68'

B. Frimpong← B. Frimpong

69'

N. Moro← N. Moro

79'

E. Donkor← E. Donkor

81'

J. Adjei← E. Opoku

90+3'

F. Osei← F. Osei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff