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Legon Cities vs KAC Soccer — Division One League 2025

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
10/13/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 3WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Legon Cities27%
×Draw24%
KAC Soccer50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.22
KAC Soccer
1.75

KAC Soccer creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.07
KAC Soccer
1.21

allows per match

Legon Cities
2.29
KAC Soccer
1.36

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
KAC Soccer+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

KAC Soccer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
50%
Legon Cities or KAC Soccer
76%
Draw or KAC Soccer
73%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
11%
KAC Soccer wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
70%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
34%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
12%
KAC Soccer 1+ goals
83%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
52%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
35%
KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

KAC Soccer away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.07 + KAC Soccer defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

KAC Soccer attack 1.21 + Legon Cities defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legon Cities scores more
27%
level
24%
KAC Soccer scores more
50%

KAC Soccer at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KAC Soccer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs KAC Soccer

KAC Soccer beat Legon Cities 2-1 in Division One League on October 13, 2025.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.