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KAC Soccer vs Legon Cities — Division One League 2025

KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
12/12/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAC Soccer71%
×Draw17%
Legon Cities11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Soccer
2.35
Legon Cities
0.82

KAC Soccer creates 187% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

KAC Soccer
1.57
Legon Cities
0.79

allows per match

KAC Soccer
0.86
Legon Cities
3.14

finishing

KAC Soccer+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Soccer ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KAC Soccer or draw
89%
KAC Soccer or Legon Cities
83%
Draw or Legon Cities
29%

Winning margin

KAC Soccer wins by 2+
48%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

KAC Soccer 1+ goals
90%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
68%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
41%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
56%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
20%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
86%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Soccer at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Soccer attack 1.57 + Legon Cities defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.35

Legon Cities attack 0.79 + KAC Soccer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

KAC Soccer scores more
71%
level
17%
Legon Cities scores more
11%

KAC Soccer at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "KAC Soccer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Soccer vs Legon Cities

KAC Soccer beat Legon Cities 2-1 in Division One League on December 12, 2025.