Legon Cities 0–1 Inter Allies: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

0 – 1

Inter Allies

5/23/2018

Premier League · Round 13Malik Jabir Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Legon Cities52%

×Draw28%

Inter Allies20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchInter Allies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.74

Legon Cities

1.39

Inter Allies

0.74

Legon Cities creates 88% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 31 away

1.20

creates per match

0.61

0.88

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.20

Inter Allies

0.61

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Inter Allies

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Inter Allies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

80%

Legon Cities or Inter Allies

72%

Draw or Inter Allies

48%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

26%

Inter Allies wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

75%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

40%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

16%

Inter Allies 1+ goals

52%

Inter Allies 2+ goals

17%

Inter Allies 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

72%

Inter Allies (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.20 + Inter Allies defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Inter Allies attack 0.61 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legon Cities scores more

52%

level

28%

Inter Allies scores more

20%

Legon Cities at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff