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Inter Allies vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
0 – 1
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
M. Cudjoe 13'
1/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Inter Allies52%
×Draw27%
Legon Cities21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.40
Legon Cities
0.78

Inter Allies creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.43
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Inter Allies
0.97
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
79%
Inter Allies or Legon Cities
73%
Draw or Legon Cities
48%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
25%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
75%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
41%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
17%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
54%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
18%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
71%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.43 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Inter Allies defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Allies scores more
52%
level
27%
Legon Cities scores more
21%

Inter Allies at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
H. Musah
13'
M. Cudjoe
29'
K. Braye
46'
P. Abanga← P. Abanga
59'
H. Musah
59'
H. Musah
63'
M. Abdul Kadir← M. Abdul Kadir
64'
A. B. Foster← A. B. Foster
68'
J. Attuquaye
80'
Y. Fadili← Y. Fadili
84'
A. Isah
90+3'
R. Ocloo← R. Ocloo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 0–1 Legon Cities

Legon Cities beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on January 31, 2021.

Goals: M. Cudjoe (13').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.