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Legon Cities vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
4/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities41%
×Draw32%
Hearts of Oak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.05
Hearts of Oak
0.80

Legon Cities creates 31% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
73%
Legon Cities or Hearts of Oak
68%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
59%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
16%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
65%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
28%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
9%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
55%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
19%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
60%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Legon Cities scores more
41%
level
32%
Hearts of Oak scores more
27%

Legon Cities at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Hearts of Oak

Legon Cities beat Hearts of Oak 2-0 in Premier League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.