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Hearts of Oak vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Hearts of Oak53%
×Draw29%
Legon Cities18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.31
Legon Cities
0.63

Hearts of Oak creates 108% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 92 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.66
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
82%
Hearts of Oak or Legon Cities
71%
Draw or Legon Cities
47%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
25%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
73%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
38%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
14%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
47%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
13%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
75%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
53%
level
29%
Legon Cities scores more
18%

Hearts of Oak at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hearts of Oak vs Legon Cities

Hearts of Oak and Legon Cities drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.