Legon Cities 1–0 Heart of Lions: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heart of Lions

12/25/2023

Premier League · Round 16Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legon Cities46%

×Draw29%

Heart of Lions25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchHeart of Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.83

Legon Cities

1.24

Heart of Lions

0.83

Legon Cities creates 49% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 51 away

1.24

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Heart of Lions

0.78

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Heart of Lions

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Heart of Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

75%

Legon Cities or Heart of Lions

71%

Draw or Heart of Lions

54%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

21%

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

71%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

35%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

13%

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

56%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

20%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

65%

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Heart of Lions away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Heart of Lions defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Heart of Lions attack 0.78 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Legon Cities scores more

46%

level

29%

Heart of Lions scores more

25%

Legon Cities at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff