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Heart of Lions vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
6/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Kpandu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Heart of Lions57%
×Draw28%
Legon Cities15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart of Lions
1.34
Legon Cities
0.53

Heart of Lions creates 153% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 92 away

creates per match

Heart of Lions
1.30
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Heart of Lions
0.46
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw
85%
Heart of Lions or Legon Cities
72%
Draw or Legon Cities
43%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+
28%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals
74%
Heart of Lions 2+ goals
39%
Heart of Lions 3+ goals
15%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
41%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
10%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)
79%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heart of Lions scores more
57%
level
28%
Legon Cities scores more
15%

Heart of Lions at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heart of Lions vs Legon Cities

Heart of Lions beat Legon Cities 2-0 in Premier League on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Kpandu Stadium in Kpandu.