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Legon Cities vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
6/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Legon Cities51%
×Draw28%
Bibiani Gold Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.37
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.79

Legon Cities creates 73% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 84 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
78%
Legon Cities or Bibiani Gold Stars
72%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
49%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
24%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
75%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
40%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
16%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
55%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
19%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
70%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legon Cities scores more
51%
level
28%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
22%

Legon Cities at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Bibiani Gold Stars

Legon Cities and Bibiani Gold Stars drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Elwak Stadium in Accra.