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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
12/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars59%
×Draw26%
Legon Cities15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.48
Legon Cities
0.60

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 147% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 92 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
85%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Legon Cities
74%
Draw or Legon Cities
41%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
31%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
77%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
43%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
19%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
45%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
12%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
59%
level
26%
Legon Cities scores more
15%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 4–2 Legon Cities

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Legon Cities 4-2 in Premier League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.