Legon Cities 3–2 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Berekum Chelsea

4/26/2024

Premier League · Round 28Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities51%

×Draw27%

Berekum Chelsea21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.80

Legon Cities

1.41

Berekum Chelsea

0.80

Legon Cities creates 76% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

0.88

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Berekum Chelsea

0.73

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Berekum Chelsea

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

79%

Legon Cities or Berekum Chelsea

73%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

49%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

25%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

76%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

41%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

17%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

55%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

19%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

71%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legon Cities scores more

51%

level

27%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

21%

Legon Cities at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff