Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Berekum Chelsea vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
10/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Berekum Chelsea56%
×Draw28%
Legon Cities16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.35
Legon Cities
0.58

Berekum Chelsea creates 133% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
84%
Berekum Chelsea or Legon Cities
72%
Draw or Legon Cities
44%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
74%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
39%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
15%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
44%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
12%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
78%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
56%
level
28%
Legon Cities scores more
16%

Berekum Chelsea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 3–1 Legon Cities

Berekum Chelsea beat Legon Cities 3-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.