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Legon Cities vs Berekum Arsenal — Division One League 2025

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
12/5/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Legon Cities43%
×Draw22%
Berekum Arsenal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.85
Berekum Arsenal
1.65

Legon Cities creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.07
Berekum Arsenal
1.00

allows per match

Legon Cities
2.29
Berekum Arsenal
2.62

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Berekum Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
65%
Legon Cities or Berekum Arsenal
78%
Draw or Berekum Arsenal
57%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
23%
Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
84%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
55%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
28%
Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
81%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
49%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
55%
Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Berekum Arsenal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.07 + Berekum Arsenal defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.85

Berekum Arsenal attack 1.00 + Legon Cities defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Legon Cities scores more
43%
level
22%
Berekum Arsenal scores more
35%

Legon Cities at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Berekum Arsenal

Berekum Arsenal beat Legon Cities 4-1 in Division One League on December 5, 2025.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.