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Berekum Arsenal vs Legon Cities — Division One League 2025

Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
10/3/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Berekum Arsenal69%
×Draw17%
Legon Cities14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Arsenal
2.60
Legon Cities
1.11

Berekum Arsenal creates 134% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Berekum Arsenal
2.07
Legon Cities
0.79

allows per match

Berekum Arsenal
1.43
Legon Cities
3.14

finishing

Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Arsenal ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Berekum Arsenal or draw
86%
Berekum Arsenal or Legon Cities
83%
Draw or Legon Cities
31%

Winning margin

Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
47%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
92%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
73%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
47%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
67%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
30%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
83%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Arsenal at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Arsenal attack 2.07 + Legon Cities defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.60

Legon Cities attack 0.79 + Berekum Arsenal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Berekum Arsenal scores more
69%
level
17%
Legon Cities scores more
14%

Berekum Arsenal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Berekum Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Berekum Arsenal 2–0 Legon Cities

Berekum Arsenal beat Legon Cities 2-0 in Division One League on October 3, 2025.