Legon Cities 0–2 Bechem United: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bechem United

12/14/2024

Premier League · Round 13University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities50%

×Draw27%

Bechem United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchBechem United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

Legon Cities

1.40

Bechem United

0.85

Legon Cities creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Bechem United

0.82

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Bechem United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Bechem United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

77%

Legon Cities or Bechem United

73%

Draw or Bechem United

50%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

24%

Bechem United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

75%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

41%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

17%

Bechem United 1+ goals

57%

Bechem United 2+ goals

21%

Bechem United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

69%

Bechem United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legon Cities scores more

50%

level

27%

Bechem United scores more

23%

Legon Cities at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff