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Legon Cities vs Bechem United — Cup 2022

Legon Cities
Legon Citiesadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bechem United
Bechem United
3/31/2024CupCup · Quarter-finalsDawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legon Cities43%
×Draw33%
Bechem United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.03
Bechem United
0.70

Legon Cities creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.40
Bechem United
1.00

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.40
Bechem United
0.67

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
76%
Legon Cities or Bechem United
67%
Draw or Bechem United
57%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
17%
Bechem United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
64%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
28%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
9%
Bechem United 1+ goals
50%
Bechem United 2+ goals
16%
Bechem United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
64%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Bechem United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.40 + Bechem United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bechem United attack 1.00 + Legon Cities defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Legon Cities scores more
43%
level
33%
Bechem United scores more
24%

Legon Cities at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Legon Cities 1–0 Bechem United

Legon Cities beat Bechem United 1-0 in Cup on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.