Legon Cities 2–1 Basake Holy Stars: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Basake Holy Stars

11/17/2024

Premier League · Round 11University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Legon Cities57%

×Draw26%

Basake Holy Stars17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchBasake Holy Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.67

Legon Cities

1.50

Basake Holy Stars

0.67

Legon Cities creates 124% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 33 away

1.24

creates per match

0.45

0.88

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Basake Holy Stars

0.45

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Basake Holy Stars

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Basake Holy Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

83%

Legon Cities or Basake Holy Stars

74%

Draw or Basake Holy Stars

43%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

30%

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

78%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

44%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

19%

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals

49%

Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals

15%

Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

78%

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Legon Cities scores more

57%

level

26%

Basake Holy Stars scores more

17%

Legon Cities at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff