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Basake Holy Stars vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
4/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Ampian AAK II Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Basake Holy Stars56%
×Draw28%
Legon Cities16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basake Holy Stars
1.34
Legon Cities
0.57

Basake Holy Stars creates 135% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

creates per match

Basake Holy Stars
1.30
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Basake Holy Stars
0.55
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basake Holy Stars ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Basake Holy Stars or draw
84%
Basake Holy Stars or Legon Cities
72%
Draw or Legon Cities
44%

Winning margin

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
27%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
74%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
39%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
15%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
43%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
11%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
78%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basake Holy Stars at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.55 · 33 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basake Holy Stars attack 1.30 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Basake Holy Stars defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Basake Holy Stars scores more
56%
level
28%
Legon Cities scores more
16%

Basake Holy Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Basake Holy Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Legon Cities

Basake Holy Stars beat Legon Cities 1-0 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Ampian AAK II Sports Arena in Azulewanu.