Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legon Cities vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
12/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities47%
×Draw29%
Aduana Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.25
Aduana Stars
0.81

Legon Cities creates 54% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
76%
Legon Cities or Aduana Stars
71%
Draw or Aduana Stars
53%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
21%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
71%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
36%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
13%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
56%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
19%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
66%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legon Cities scores more
47%
level
29%
Aduana Stars scores more
24%

Legon Cities at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Aduana Stars

Aduana Stars beat Legon Cities 1-0 in Premier League on December 26, 2024.

The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.