Aduana Stars 1–0 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Aduana Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Legon Cities

3/10/2024

Premier League · Round 20Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Aduana Stars57%

×Draw28%

Legon Cities15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aduana StarsExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.58

Aduana Stars

1.40

Legon Cities

0.58

Aduana Stars creates 141% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 92 away

1.41

creates per match

0.59

0.58

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Aduana Stars

1.41

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Aduana Stars

0.58

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw

85%

Aduana Stars or Legon Cities

72%

Draw or Legon Cities

43%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

29%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

75%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

41%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

17%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

44%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

12%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

79%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.58 · 108 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.41 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Aduana Stars defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aduana Stars scores more

57%

level

28%

Legon Cities scores more

15%

Aduana Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff