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Legionovia Legionowo vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
2 – 1
Kutno
Kutno
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo50%
×Draw23%
Kutno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.88
Kutno
1.35

Legionovia Legionowo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 36 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Kutno
1.75

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
72%
Legionovia Legionowo or Kutno
77%
Draw or Kutno
50%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
28%
Kutno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
85%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
56%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
29%
Kutno 1+ goals
74%
Kutno 2+ goals
39%
Kutno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
64%
Kutno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kutno attack 1.44 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
50%
level
23%
Kutno scores more
28%

Legionovia Legionowo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Kutno

Legionovia Legionowo beat Kutno 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.