Kutno 1–3 Legionovia Legionowo: Result & Stats

Kutno

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

4/2/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno39%

×Draw24%

Legionovia Legionowo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KutnoExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.55

Kutno

1.58

Legionovia Legionowo

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

1.53

creates per match

1.69

1.41

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kutno

1.53

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Kutno

1.41

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kutno or draw

63%

Kutno or Legionovia Legionowo

76%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

61%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+

19%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals

79%

Kutno 2+ goals

47%

Kutno 3+ goals

21%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

79%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

46%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)

51%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kutno scores more

39%

level

24%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

37%

Kutno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff