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Legionovia Legionowo vs ŁKS Łódź II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
4 – 2
ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
10/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo42%
×Draw24%
ŁKS Łódź II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.65
ŁKS Łódź II
1.46

Legionovia Legionowo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
ŁKS Łódź II
1.66

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
ŁKS Łódź II
1.29

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
66%
Legionovia Legionowo or ŁKS Łódź II
76%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź II
58%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
22%
ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
81%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
49%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
23%
ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
43%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
55%
ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.66 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
42%
level
24%
ŁKS Łódź II scores more
34%

Legionovia Legionowo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs ŁKS Łódź II

Legionovia Legionowo beat ŁKS Łódź II 4-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.