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ŁKS Łódź II vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
5/14/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II48%
×Draw22%
Legionovia Legionowo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.97
Legionovia Legionowo
1.53

ŁKS Łódź II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 70 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
2.31
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.37
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
70%
ŁKS Łódź II or Legionovia Legionowo
78%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
52%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
27%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
86%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
58%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
31%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
78%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
45%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
61%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.97

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
48%
level
22%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
30%

ŁKS Łódź II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Legionovia Legionowo

ŁKS Łódź II beat Legionovia Legionowo 4-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Akademia ŁKS Łódź in Łódź.