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Legionovia Legionowo vs Gryf Wejherowo — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
7/4/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 30Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo61%
×Draw21%
Gryf Wejherowo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
2.03
Gryf Wejherowo
1.00

Legionovia Legionowo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Gryf Wejherowo
0.53

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Gryf Wejherowo
3.18

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
82%
Legionovia Legionowo or Gryf Wejherowo
79%
Draw or Gryf Wejherowo
39%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
37%
Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
87%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
60%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
33%
Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
63%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
26%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
77%
Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.03

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.53 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
61%
level
21%
Gryf Wejherowo scores more
18%

Legionovia Legionowo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Gryf Wejherowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Gryf Wejherowo 5-2 in II Liga - East on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.