Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gryf Wejherowo vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
10/12/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo37%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gryf Wejherowo
1.55
Legionovia Legionowo
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo
0.82
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo
2.18
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw
60%
Gryf Wejherowo or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
63%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
18%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
79%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
46%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
20%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
80%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
48%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
48%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.82 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.55

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more
37%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
40%

Legionovia Legionowo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gryf Wejherowo vs Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Gryf Wejherowo 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo in Wejherowo.