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Legionovia Legionowo vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
8/25/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo29%
×Draw26%
Górnik Polkowice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.09
Górnik Polkowice
1.44

Górnik Polkowice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Górnik Polkowice
1.40

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Górnik Polkowice
1.30

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
55%
Legionovia Legionowo or Górnik Polkowice
74%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
71%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
11%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
66%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
30%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
10%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
42%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
39%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
29%
level
26%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
45%

Górnik Polkowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in II Liga - East on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.