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Górnik Polkowice vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
6/3/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice61%
×Draw20%
Legionovia Legionowo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
2.15
Legionovia Legionowo
1.10

Górnik Polkowice creates 95% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
2.00
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.15
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
81%
Górnik Polkowice or Legionovia Legionowo
80%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
39%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
38%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
88%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
63%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
36%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
67%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
30%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
77%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
61%
level
20%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
19%

Górnik Polkowice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Górnik Polkowice 2-1 in II Liga - East on June 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.