Legionovia Legionowo 0–3 Concordia Elbląg

Legionovia Legionowo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Concordia Elbląg

8/5/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo63%

×Draw19%

Concordia Elbląg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legionovia LegionowoExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.15

Legionovia Legionowo

2.29

Concordia Elbląg

1.15

Legionovia Legionowo creates 99% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

1.04

1.26

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo

2.00

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo

1.26

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw

82%

Legionovia Legionowo or Concordia Elbląg

81%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

37%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

40%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

90%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

66%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

40%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

68%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

32%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

78%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

63%

level

19%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

18%

Legionovia Legionowo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff