Concordia Elbląg 0–3 Legionovia Legionowo

Concordia Elbląg

FT

0 – 3

Legionovia Legionowo

11/25/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg36%

×Draw24%

Legionovia Legionowo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia ElblągExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.57

Concordia Elbląg

1.46

Legionovia Legionowo

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

1.29

creates per match

1.69

1.45

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.29

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw

60%

Concordia Elbląg or Legionovia Legionowo

76%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

64%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

17%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

77%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

43%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

18%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

79%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

46%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

47%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more

36%

level

24%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

40%

Legionovia Legionowo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff