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Legion vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
4/28/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 9Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legion67%
×Draw16%
K-Järve JK Järve16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
1.36

Legion creates 108% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 69 away

creates per match

Legion
2.54
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

Legion
1.76
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Legion or draw
84%
Legion or K-Järve JK Järve
84%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
33%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
47%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
94%
Legion 2+ goals
77%
Legion 3+ goals
53%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
74%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
39%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
80%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 2.54 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.83

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Legion defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Legion scores more
67%
level
16%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
16%

Legion at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion vs K-Järve JK Järve

Legion beat K-Järve JK Järve 1-0 in Esiliiga A on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.