K-Järve JK Järve 3–4 Legion: Result & Stats

K-Järve JK Järve

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Legion

G. Mitsuk 90+1'

A. Butenko 50'

K. Pavlov 22'

I. Sorokin 83'

A. Balta 81'

M. Eensalu 64'

D. Samborskyi 20'

10/29/2023

Esiliiga A · Round 33Kiviõli Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve28%

×Draw20%

Legion52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

K-Järve JK JärveExpected goals in this matchLegion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.27

K-Järve JK Järve

1.63

Legion

2.27

Legion creates 39% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 36 away

1.16

creates per match

1.86

2.68

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve

1.16

Legion

1.86

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve

2.68

Legion

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Legion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw

48%

K-Järve JK Järve or Legion

80%

Draw or Legion

72%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

13%

Legion wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

80%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

48%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

22%

Legion 1+ goals

90%

Legion 2+ goals

66%

Legion 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

35%

Legion (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 68 matches

Legion away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.16 + Legion defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Legion attack 1.86 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

28%

level

20%

Legion scores more

52%

Legion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

20'

22'

23'

50'

64'

74'

78'

V. Panov← V. Pochekutov

81'

I. Sorokin← D. Samborskyi

81'

A. Balta

83'

I. Sorokin

86'

V. Istsenko

86'

E. Zotov← K. Pavlov

88'

V. Velikanov

90+1'

G. Mitsuk

K-Järve

Legion

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Pavlov

Velikanov

Manager: E. Šteinberg

86'▲E. Zotov←▼K. Pavlov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

ZotovKoskorKanev

Manager: D. Belov

78'▲V. Panov←▼V. Pochekutov

81'▲I. Sorokin←▼D. Samborskyi

Legion substitutes

PanovSorokinVolodin

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Legion

Legion beat K-Järve JK Järve 4-3 in Esiliiga A on October 29, 2023.

Goals: D. Samborskyi (20'), K. Pavlov (22'), A. Butenko (50'), M. Eensalu (64'), A. Balta (81'), I. Sorokin (83'), G. Mitsuk (90+1').

The match was played at Kiviõli Arena in Kiviõli.

K-Järve JK Järve vs Legion — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Legion