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Legion vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Elva
Elva
11/17/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Relegation RoundSportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legion52%
×Draw21%
Elva27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
2.22
Elva
1.58

Legion creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 126 away

creates per match

Legion
2.54
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Legion
1.76
Elva
1.90

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Legion or draw
73%
Legion or Elva
79%
Draw or Elva
48%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
31%
Elva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
89%
Legion 2+ goals
65%
Legion 3+ goals
38%
Elva 1+ goals
79%
Elva 2+ goals
47%
Elva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
65%
Elva (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 2.54 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.22

Elva attack 1.40 + Legion defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legion scores more
52%
level
21%
Elva scores more
27%

Legion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legion 0 – 3 Elva

Elva beat Legion 3-0 in Esiliiga A on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.