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Elva vs Legion — Cup 2020

Elva
Elvaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legion
Legion
7/30/2025CupCup · Round of 64Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Elva35%
×Draw18%
Legion47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
2.56
Legion
2.95

Legion creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Elva
3.22
Legion
4.78

allows per match

Elva
1.11
Legion
1.89

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Elva or draw
53%
Elva or Legion
82%
Draw or Legion
65%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
20%
Legion wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
92%
Elva 2+ goals
72%
Elva 3+ goals
46%
Legion 1+ goals
95%
Legion 2+ goals
79%
Legion 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
43%
Legion (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Legion away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 3.22 + Legion defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.56

Legion attack 4.78 + Elva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elva scores more
35%
level
18%
Legion scores more
47%

Legion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elva vs Legion

Elva beat Legion 3-0 in Cup on July 30, 2025.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Elva.