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Legion Dynamo vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
9/20/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legion Dynamo66%
×Draw19%
Inter Cherkessk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
2.33
Inter Cherkessk
1.02

Legion Dynamo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
85%
Legion Dynamo or Inter Cherkessk
81%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
34%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
43%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
90%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
67%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
41%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
64%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
27%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
81%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.33

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
66%
level
19%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
15%

Legion Dynamo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Inter Cherkessk

Legion Dynamo beat Inter Cherkessk 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.