Inter Cherkessk 2–2 Legion Dynamo: Result & Stats

Inter Cherkessk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Legion Dynamo

4/11/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk19%

×Draw22%

Legion Dynamo59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter CherkesskExpected goals in this matchLegion Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.92

Inter Cherkessk

0.99

Legion Dynamo

1.92

Legion Dynamo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 89 away

0.81

creates per match

1.39

2.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk

0.81

Legion Dynamo

1.39

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk

2.44

Legion Dynamo

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Legion Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw

41%

Inter Cherkessk or Legion Dynamo

78%

Draw or Legion Dynamo

81%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+

7%

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals

63%

Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals

26%

Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals

8%

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

85%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

57%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)

24%

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more

19%

level

22%

Legion Dynamo scores more

59%

Legion Dynamo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff