Legion Dynamo 5–1 Dynamo Makhachkala II

Legion Dynamo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Dynamo Makhachkala II

11/3/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legion Dynamo62%

×Draw22%

Dynamo Makhachkala II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchDynamo Makhachkala II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.88

Legion Dynamo

1.93

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.88

Legion Dynamo creates 119% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 51 away

1.52

creates per match

0.65

1.11

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.65

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Dynamo Makhachkala II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Dynamo Makhachkala II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

83%

Legion Dynamo or Dynamo Makhachkala II

78%

Draw or Dynamo Makhachkala II

38%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

37%

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

85%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

57%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

30%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

59%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

22%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

79%

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.65 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

62%

level

22%

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

17%

Legion Dynamo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff