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Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
6/30/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II23%
×Draw25%
Legion Dynamo52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.97
Legion Dynamo
1.59

Legion Dynamo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 89 away

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.76
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.80
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw
48%
Dynamo Makhachkala II or Legion Dynamo
75%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
77%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
8%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
62%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
7%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
80%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
47%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
31%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
23%
level
25%
Legion Dynamo scores more
52%

Legion Dynamo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Dynamo Makhachkala II 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Makhachkala.