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Legion Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
9/6/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Legion Dynamo37%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Makhachkala36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.23
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 32 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
64%
Legion Dynamo or Dinamo Makhachkala
73%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
63%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
71%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
35%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
51%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
37%
level
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
36%

Legion Dynamo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala

Legion Dynamo and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.