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Legion Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
7/20/2019CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Legion Dynamo49%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Makhachkala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.50
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00

Legion Dynamo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
0.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
75%
Legion Dynamo or Dinamo Makhachkala
74%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
51%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
78%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
44%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.67 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Legion Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
49%
level
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
25%

Legion Dynamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Legion Dynamo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 in Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.