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Legion Dynamo vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Biolog
Biolog
9/18/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Legion Dynamo45%
×Draw25%
Biolog30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.56
Biolog
1.21

Legion Dynamo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 73 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
70%
Legion Dynamo or Biolog
75%
Draw or Biolog
55%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
23%
Biolog wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
79%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
46%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
21%
Biolog 1+ goals
70%
Biolog 2+ goals
34%
Biolog 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
61%
Biolog (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Biolog attack 1.30 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
45%
level
25%
Biolog scores more
30%

Legion Dynamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Biolog

Legion Dynamo and Biolog drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy in Makhachkala.