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Biolog vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
8/25/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Biolog37%
×Draw25%
Legion Dynamo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.41
Legion Dynamo
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
62%
Biolog or Legion Dynamo
75%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
63%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
17%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
76%
Biolog 2+ goals
41%
Biolog 3+ goals
17%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
76%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
41%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
50%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Biolog scores more
37%
level
25%
Legion Dynamo scores more
38%

Legion Dynamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Biolog 1–3 Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Biolog 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.